Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will make his second Oval Office visit on October 7, 2025, to negotiate tariff relief and recalibrate the Canadian – American economic relationship under mounting pressure. Analysts predict modest gains at best, as one former ambassador warned: “You can’t compete with Trump.”
From Rhetoric to Reality: Tariff Relief Tempered
Though optimism surrounds Carney’s return to Washington, insiders suggest any tariff rollback will be gradual. The US maintained that Canada must first address Trump’s unfairnerss on trade balance, border enforcement, and fentanyl trafficking before meaningful concessions can follow.
Sector-specific tariffs, particularly on steel, aluminum, and autos remain in limbo. Canada has already lifted retaliatory measures such as counter-tariffs and a proposed digital services tax to facilitate talks. Some analysts believe discrete negotiations rather than dramatic gestures in the Oval Office will yield more durable results.
“You Can’t Compete With Trump” — A Sobering Warning
The phrase likely references the asymmetric power dynamics at play. US presidents can wield trade instruments with immediacy; Canada, constrained by rules, treaties, and domestic politics, cannot always respond in kind. The warning underscores that Canada must leverage strategy, resilience, and partnerships and not unilateral competition to withstand pressure.
Carney’s prior concessions, like abandoning certain retaliatory policies and restoring US tech exemptions underscore Canada’s need to prudently navigate US demands while safeguarding sovereignty.
From a Hungarian-Canadian relations angle
- Export positioning matters: If Canadian exporters gain marginal relief, they may increase orders for parts and components from European and Hungarian firms to repair margins.
- Supply chains & risk sharing: The unpredictability of American – Canadian trade means Hungarian firms should build diversification into sourcing and distribution strategies.
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Written for the Canadian Chamber of Commerce in Hungary News Section as part of our ongoing coverage of developments affecting Canadian trade, economy and international partnerships, October 2025